Bush Lies in the State of the Union...Surprise Surprise

Today I was reading through the Sunday Edition of the New York Times and I came across a very interesting article called the Budget Illusion.

Now it is no surprise that President Bush lied in the State of the Union, as he has done so about Iraq, the War on Terror and Social Security among others but I just wanted to bring to light this little fib to add to his list of aspersions.

In this most recent State of the Union, Bushy said that we had cut the budget deficit in half from 2004-2006. This is a lie. The deficit fell from $412 billion to$248 billion and if you measure it as a percentage of the economy he was off by an amount equal to about $15 billion. (Thank you New York Times for the figures)

Let me quote for you a little bit more of the rest of the article:

"Mr. Bush greatly compounded his otherwise modest exaggeration by taking credit for the reduction, when the deficit really fell despite his policies, not because of them...The drop in deficit over the past few years was due largely to the cyclical recovery from the earlier recession, and to a boost in revenue when temporary business tax cuts expired after 2004. Mr. Bush, meanwhile, has pursued a single-minded strategy of spending more while slashing taxes. That is the opposite of deficit reduction; it has made the budget hole deeper than it would have been. Still, Mr. Bush wants you to believe that tax cuts caused the economic recovery, and thus the budget improvement.

That was the speech, and then there is reality, which came knocking within days when the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released its annual 10-year budget outlook. The outlook is for a cumulative deficit of $2.9 trillion to $3.4 trillion - about $300 billion a year - if, as Mr. Bush wishes, the tax cuts are extended beyond their scheduled expiration in 2010 and tax relief continues for Americans wrongly afflicted by the alternative minimum tax. In arriving at its estimate, the budget agency also assumed that costs for the war in Iraq would start going down next year, an assumption that, if proved wrong, would result in even higher deficits."

Now you may be saying, it's $15 billion dollars, what's the big deal? The big deal is this is our President, and this is not his first little lie. If he is willing to lie about this among other things, what else is he willing to lie about.

Why the Scooter Libby Debacle Will Be the Last Political Mistake Dick Cheney Will Ever Make

Nobody really liked Dick Cheney in the first place. They tolerated him because he was an experienced business man, who had appeal to the Republican party.

Then, he became a staunch supporter of an increasingly unpopular Iraq war, and attacked Wolf Blitzer on CNN.

Then when Scooter Libby was arrested and held on charges of perjury Dick Cheney must have known that it was over. In an article published a few hours ago, the LA Times said this about a White House aide who recently testified in Libby's trial:

"Vice President Dick Cheney and his former chief of staff, I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, were personally and actively involved in an effort to spin news coverage and discredit a critic of the Iraq war even before the fact that his wife was a CIA operative became public, a senior White House official testified Thursday.

Martin testified as a prosecution witness at Libby's trial on charges of obstructing an investigation into how the name of a CIA operative became public. The operative, Valerie Plame, is the wife of former U.S. envoy Joseph C. Wilson IV. Wilson, who had written a government report questioning White House claims that Iraq had sought nuclear weapons material from the government of Niger -- a report that the White House sought to discredit."

So what does this mean for Dick Cheney?

He is a second term Vice-President, who is rarely seen in public, has a scandalous trial in the works and is supportive of a war that even members of his own party are trying to distance themselves from. I'm pretty sure that we're going to be seeing the resignation of Dick Cheney in the months or weeks to come.

6 Reasons Why We Will Be Out of Iraq in Two Years

Here are a number of reasons why we will be out of Iraq in the next two years:

1. Support levels are low for the war
2. Reactions have been mostly negative for the "troop surge"
3. Bush will try to save his legacy by making amends
4. The Republican party will put pressure on Bush to pull out to save their chances for the Presidential election
5. New recruits are scarcely found, and instituting a draft for an already lowly supported war would be suicide
6. The Go Army commercials are getting pretty annoying

Bush Uses the Word "Iraq" Only 16 Times in the State of the Union

In this year's State of the Union address, President Bush used the word "Iraq" only 16 times in his speech. This compared with 27 times last year. He also used the word "Terrorism" only 20 times, as apposed to 27 times last year. Which words were on the rise? The word "World" was used 26 times as opposed to 15 last year and "Iran" was used 6 times as opposed to 3 last year and 1 in 2004.

So what does this mean? It means that we are shifting to the focus from Iraq to Iran, and looking at global issues more carefully. Why is this important? I don't know, you tell me.'

Source

See you soon.

My Market Theory

Well, lately I have been thinking a lot about the stock market. It seems like an easy way to make a lot of money very quickly, or lose a lot of money very quickly. But I think I found a strategy that over time when well applied virtually guarantees at least some gain from money invested.

Granted, I could be totally off the mark on this one, and if I am I would love to hear your theories, but I thought this was worth writing about. (That and I couldn't think of anything else, ;) .)

The first thing that you have to do is to pick a reliable stock. Something that isn't going away any time soon, and is traded in high volume. Make sure it's E/P is fairly low too, it needs to be a well valued stock.

Second, buy a some shares in that stock lets say 15.

Now comes the weird part.

If the stock goes down by two dollars, buy 15 more shares. If it goes down another two dollars buy another 15. (Obviously you have to set a limit for yourself i.e if it goes down buy 40 dollars you shouldn't still be buying, unless you think it is grossly undervalued.)

If the stock goes up by two dollars, sell 15 shares. If the stock keeps going up, and you have no more shares to sell, look at the E/P and if it is extremely high and the stock goes down by two dollars, don't buy more shares. Wait until you get a reasonable E/P before you start the cycle over again.

If you test this theory either with a fake portfolio or with the real deal, I would be very interested to hear about it.

The Roots of Hatred: How the Terrorist Problem Began and What to Do

Terrorism itself has been around for centuries. It has arisen in many cultures from Hinduism, to Judaism. It has been dealt with (and not dealt with) in the past in a variety of ways. What I want to talk about today is the roots of the terrorist problem in the Arab nations of the world, and what we can do about it.

To fully understand the terrorism problem, we need not look to the past 3,000 years as I and other have previously suggested, but to the past 30. This is because it is in this time period that the thriving cultures of the Arab nations, from Iraq to Lebanon, have gone from forward thinking and prosperous, to war ravaged and poor.

The problem starts in the 1950's and 60's. Here, Americanism was revered and many Arab nations attempted to mimic America's success and forward thinking policies. With leaders like Gamal Nasser of Egypt, the Arab world was trying to take the step forward into modernism. Republics were formed, civil liberties instituted and everything was on course for success. Then everything fell apart. Nothing was implemented correctly and suddenly these American ideals poorly utilized led to dictator's and a step backward in Arab culture. Women's rights were stripped, fundamentalist Islam was born and the beginnings of the Arab problem began.

This failure of the Arab regimes lead to a disillusionment with America, something which is exploited by terrorist movements. Youth's looking up to America, wanting to study in America, and wanting their countries to be like America felt like America was looking down on them, like they weren't good enough. This fact is exploited by terrorists in a specific demographic: young, impressionable, angry young men.

But perhaps most shocking of all is that many of the young people who choose to become terrorists are not poor and uneducated. Consider this, Mohammed Atta the lead terrorist on American Airlines Flight 11 grew up in a home that was not particularly religious and where studies were put first. He got good grades, and then went to Cairo University where he received a degree in architecture. At this point, he was still not very religious. Then he went went to Germany to earn his master's degree, and everything changed. Mohammed Atta the well schooled student became Mohammed Atta the terrorist.

It seems that this is a pattern. Previously un-religious young Arab men who move to foreign countries to study, are looked down upon by the western inhabitants. They then move back to the more conservative ways that make them feel at home and safe. From there they get into militant Islam, and there is no turning back.

So a disillusionment with the west created by feeling like an outsider, prompts young men who are angry at being treated as inferior to terrorist groups lead by charismatic leaders who twist the words of an inherently peaceful religion to spew fire at their perceived "oppressors."

Great, so what do we do about it?

We take a multilateral and multifront approach to correct misconceptions, turn public opinion and cut the knee's off the terrorist groups who are a threat to our way of life.

The first thing to do is turn public opinion away from terrorism, specifically in the young person demographic. We set up charities, and massive food drops. We emblazon our name on everything and hire an experienced PR firm to help.

The second thing to do is set up schools to correct misconceptions about the West that many young people are brought up with in the Arab world today.

We make it seem ridiculous to be a terrorist, show the people Islam as it was intended, as a peaceful religion.

Then, we take care of the existing terrorists. We find them where they are hiding, and we kill them with covert operations. No invasions. Nice and clean.

Now if we cut their heads off with covert ops, they can't regrow because their source for recruits has been turned against them.

Then we pull out of Iraq, do something that doesn't involve an invasion about Iran, and deal with China, North Korea and Russia.

See you soon.

Blog

Ok, so I've been doing some thinking, and this blog is now going to be totally about politics. And some technology. Technolitics I believe is the best term. See you later.

North Korea and Iran: Part Two

Welcome back to my multi-part series on Iran and North Korea. There are just around three options to eliminate the problems posed by these countries that I outlined in the last post.


1. Going to war.

• Personally, I don't think that there is really an option of going to war with these two countries. I think it would be like Iraq, but worse. We don't have the troop levels, the international support or the domestic support. It would cost hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides and really just wouldn't be worth it at all.

2. Sending in specialized strike teams to eliminate the enemies nuclear facilities.

• To me, this doesn't particularly solve anything in the long run. First of all, anything that we destroy can and will be rebuilt, so it is not a long term solution. Secondly, destroying something on North Korean or Iranian soil will just give these leaders more of an opportunity to turn the population against up, and bring about hatred in the form of national unity.

3. Eliminating the leaders of these countries.

• This is against U.S policy, and would have to be done very sneakily so as to make it look like an accident. This is because if it does not look like an accident or natural causes, it could unite the country under an extremist successor and we would be worse off than when we started.
  

I think that in the long run, a combination of the second and third courses of action are what is best for U.S interests. If we destroy their nuclear facilities, and eliminate their leaders, either through intimidation, taking away their porn collections or killing them in a mock accident, and then line up a successor that is actually fit to rule, everybody would be much better and we would only have to China and Russia to deal with and oh yeah Osama bin Laden. But seriously, any sort of assassination or "shock and awing" out of power should only be used as a last resort when peaceful negotiations fail, and a threat to U.S interests seems very imminent.

North Korea and Iran: Part One

In this multi-part series, I am going to be exploring the many facets of the problems posed towards America by North Korea and Iran. You may ask, why am I doing this? And I would tell you, because I can!

From my standpoint, the way things are looking right now, an alliance between a nuclear North Korea, and a wanna-be nuclear Iran is potentially hazardous to our country. This is for a few reasons.

• Both dictators have no regard for their people's well being, and run a state of ultra-security, meaning no information about the state goes in or out unless it is smuggled.
• Their propaganda machine can pin all of their problems on the U.S and its allies, meaning that it could stir its people into a war frenzy against the "rorld", or the "infidels."
• North Korea is nuclear, and Iran is a nuclear wanna-be.
• North Korea has ties to Russia and China, both of whom have uneasy relations with the U.S.
  
• Iran has ties to a Muslim world that openly does not like the U.S (for the most part).
• These leaders do not really have a sense for the impact that some of their actions may have on their county and the rest of the world, i.e they are somewhat irresponsible towards their peoples needs.

So how do we deal with these problems?

You can find Part Two here.

5 Reasons Hillary Clinton Will Get the Democratic Nomination in 2008

Here are 5 Reasons why Hillary will Get the Dems Presidential Nomination in '08

1. Her husband is Bill Clinton which gives her star power

2. John Edwards already lost a nomination, and didn't win on the Vice Presidential ballot

3. Barrack Obama, though he is extremely popular, is too young to be President this time around, but look for a vice presidential nomination for him

4. She is an experienced and well liked Senator, who is at the top of the heap in terms of Democratic candidacy

5. She is a woman. (I know this one sounds more like a disadvantage to many people, but I believe that the democratic party is looking for a change from stuffy old white men)

This is not to say that she will win the Presidency, which I think is likely, but after getting the nomination she may have some tough opponents on the Republican side like John McCain.

Why Illegal Immigration May Be Good for America

Everybody is complaining about outsourcing. But what is the cause of outsourcing? Labor is much cheaper in other countries where the standard of living is less and minimum wage is either less regulated, less, or non-exist. Everybody wants to bring these jobs back to the U.S and U.S citizens, but how can we do this when a companies sole purpose in life is to make as much money as it can as quickly as it can? The answer, lies in our own backyard, or rather our neighbors backyard.
Cheap labor is available readily in our country through working passes issued to Mexican citizens who cannot otherwise support their families. So why not use it? American corporations could then bring back jobs from places like India and China, and help these Mexican families attain a better quality of life. And after a while who knows, these jobs could go back to the Americans who need them most.
At least the jobs come back onto American soil, and hey, it's a start.

Google Notebook

Looks like people have been posting their sensitive information online...on Google of all places. If people sue Google and win. It's kind of like getting drunk, and walking around in your underwear, and then suing Jimmy Bean.

Saddam's Last Message

This just in from the murderer of countless Iraqi citizens: "Do not hate"
Apparently after learning that he will soon become a martyr, or a cadaver depending on your viewpoint, Saddam wrote a final sob letter to a world that never really understood him. Tear, tear. That being said, I'm not sure that executing him is the right way to go.

"some Hussein loyalists threatened to retaliate if the ousted Iraqi leader is executed, warning in a posting on the same Baath Party Web site that carried the former leader's letter they would target U.S. interests anywhere."

By executing Saddam, we are just putting ourselves on the hit list of so many more extremists who are willing to die for their cause. Eventually, if enough people hate us something bad is going to happen.

Now I'm not saying that Saddam should be given a full pardon, but just be kept in life imprisonment and maybe executed later. Executing him now is like rubbing dirt in the wounds of the extremist movement, and is not a wise decision at this point.

What do you guys think?

Christmas Decorations

Something that bothers me a little bit, is when people leave their Christmas decorations up until Easter. Yes, we understand that you like Christmas, and you wish everyday was Christmas, but could you please take your decorations down its already been like a month. Anyway thats besides the point. I was driving past I don't know where, and I saw these decorations on the lawn.
And I bet you anything, they will be up for at least another month.

A Solution to Waiting for Support Over the Phone

It seems that almost every month or so, I have to call tech support for one reason or another. And every time it happens, I take a phone, dial the number, put it on speakerphone and surf the web until somebody picks up. I can wait for hours sometimes, and then I just get transferred. So I came up with a solution.

Why can't they call us back? Why can't it be like this:

You dial the number. A computer picks up and tells you that all operators are busy, but if you could please enter your phone number as soon as one becomes available he will call you back. Thank you for your time.

This means no more waiting on hold for hours on end. I don't know how much it costs for a company to call you from Mumbai, but it seems like it would be cheap enough.

Now I Can Have Directions Read to Me as I Drive

As someone who uses Cingular's EDGE mobile wireless network, this announcement from Google's blog is exciting. Now I can be in the car, and have directions to my location read out to me as I drive. Very, very, very cool.

Subscriptions

Hits to this site have been very satisfying for its first few days of operation, but subscriptions to the feed are quite low. I was wondering if that was because of something that I have done, like this is not interesting enough, or if it was because how to subscribe (to where) was not obvious enough?

Why Vista is Doomed

Vista is doomed. At least for its first year.

Let's let that sink in.

Microsoft, the biggest software corporation in the world, led for now by the richest man in the world, has just released a piece of software that it has spent years and millions upon millions of dollars on, that is doomed for failure. Why?

Around a year ago, I bought an Alienware laptop for about $1500. Today, I ran the Windows Vista Upgrade Advisor, and guess what? I failed. That means that I can't run Vista on my computer. Which mean, that I'm not going to upgrade until I get a new computer. If I just bought an relatively expensive Alienware laptop a year ago and it can't run Vista, I'm betting that most consumers and business' can't afford the kind of graphics intensive system that Vista requires. Which means less of an incentive to upgrade to Vista, especially since its heralded unparalleled security seems pretty much the same as XP. Here too. So basically, there is no incentive to upgrade until I upgrade my computer anyway.

Sorry Microsoft, but you couldn't quite pull off the copy cat job this time.

Should Trans Fats Be Banned?

In about 18 months, every restaurant in New York City will have fazed out trans fats (except for the ones that want to get arrested, or worse fined ;) ). Personally I think that this is almost outrageous, not quite though. I understand the reasoning behind it. It is to protect consumers from the evils of trans fats, and to curb the obesity epidemic facing New York and America. But let us take a step back. How come a restaurant can serve alcohol, a potentially lethal drink, that alters the consciousness of the consumer to the point where he loses his inhibitions and leads to countless car accidents a year, but that same restaurant cannot serve a dish that can, over time in large quantities, lead to heart disease among other things. That is one thing I don't understand. There are others.

What ever happened to consumer responsibility. Shouldn't consumers be able to make informed choices about what they eat. Why can't we choose for ourselves. I don't think as an American citizen that I shouldn't be allowed to eat something that I want to as long as I understand the potential health risks after a few decades of frequent ingestion. That's just me.

What do you think? Comment back.

Sorry

Sorry I haven't post all day, I was after-Christmas shopping (read returning) and was away from my computer. I'll hopefully get a few posts up tonight after dinner.